How Arab Americans Will Vote in 2006
Today Dr. James J. Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute, released an analysis of recent Arab American-focused polls regarding the upcoming election.
Arab Americans will vote overwhelming Democratic this year, expanding on a trend that began in 2002. Bottom line, it is frustration with the Bush administration's domestic and foreign policy that is shaping Arab American preferences.But what does this mean for the election?
The Democratic/Republican gap began to open up in 2002 - by now it is a chasm - and in some key battleground states in can make a difference.Which states?
Collectively, they represent a likely voter turnout of 510,000 Arab American voters who represent up to 5% of Michigan voters, 2% in Ohio and Florida, and more than one and one-half per cent in Pennsylvania. In all four states Arab American voters show preference for the Democratic candidates for governor and senator.This reflects a longer term trend that started soon after President G.W. Bush was elected.
All of this point's to a significant shift in Arab American voting patterns. We have been polling Arab American voters since the early 90's. Up until 2002, Arab Americans demonstrated only a slight preference for the Democratic party, usually by a margin of three to eight percent. In 2002, reflecting early alienation Bush Administration policies, the Democratic edge grew to 39% to 31%. By 2004, the margin had increased to 43% to 32%. Now, in 2006, the percentage of Arab American who self-identify as Democrats has grown to 45% as opposed to only 31% who see themselves as Republicans.Zogby notes it is too early to tell if this trend will continue. More information and polling breakdowns for specific races can be found here.
