November's Economic Outlook
Posted by Mike Gehrke on March 14, 2008 at 11:32 AM
The failing economy spells bad news for McCain and GOP in November:
The employment numbers for recent months strongly suggest that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain and his congressional colleagues will face huge political problems this year.Most worrisome is the fact that private-sector nonfarm employment fell by more than 100,000 jobs in February, a development that led many fence-sitting economists to finally predict that a recession was imminent, if one had not already begun. Indeed, noting that private-sector payroll employment had now suffered an average monthly decline of 47,000 jobs over the previous three months, Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, told the New York Times that every time such a trend has occurred in the last 50 years, a recession inevitably resulted. Moreover, in all instances, the job market did not recover until after monthly job losses had exceeded 200,000.
If job losses continue this year and the unemployment rate inevitably begins to rise, Republicans will face unhappy voters who, if history is any guide, will blame the political party occupying the White House.
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