Cillizza Gets it Wrong

Chris Cillizza got it wrong this morning in a post about the Democratic Party needing an attack dog to win a health care debate that it is already winning.  Cillizza - as evidence of the Democrats need for an attack dog - cites Michael Steele and Sarah Palin's frequent attacks on Democratic efforts to pass health insurance reform - two of the least credible and most often debunked messengers the GOP has on health care.  Palin's ludicrous invocation of death panels has been debunked over and over again and has put other GOP luminaries, such as Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, on the defensive.  For his part, Michael Steele's effort to scare seniors with lies about the plan cutting Medicare benefits has been called scare-mongering, dishonest and scare tactics. And, Michael Steele's gaffe prone television appearances and rocky tenure at the RNC would hardly seem like something worth holding up as a worthy example.

Cillizza's post is also wrong on the facts.  While many in Washington remain glued to cable television news' scrum 24 hours a day - most Americans do not.  Cillizza's cloistered thinking is evidenced by his analysis that Republicans won this summer’s message war while poll after poll (see below) shows that when August was in the books we were exactly where we started with the same amount of people for or against health insurance reform, with the President and the GOP's standing on their handling of the issue the same as it has been (with the President enjoying a commanding lead) and with the GOP's Party ID back down to a dismal 21 percent - and now with the President's own approval rating either remaining the same or inching back up.  The polls simply show that this analysis is wrong.  If you sat in a newsroom all day in August and watched the selective airing of people shouting at town hall meetings - shouting about things like rationing and death panels that weren't true to begin with - then you might think the other side won the message war.  But the polls - and the evidence from hundreds upon hundreds of town hall meetings that cable news did not air - show that there were thoughtful and positive discussions of health insurance reform going on all over the country.

Also - if the Republicans had won the message war this summer - Congress would have surely dropped the idea of reform - just as the Republican Congress dropped Bush's idea of privatizing Social Security in 2005 when the Democrats actually did win the message war.

Finally, Cillizza misses the lessons of the 2008 election or the legislative battles of 2009 (SCHIP, Fair Pay, Economic Recovery, Budget) - all won by the Democrats.  Republicans were relentless attack dogs against the recovery package, the budget, Fair Pay for Women and SCHIP - but in every case the Democrats won.  They were relentless in their attacks on health insurance reform in the deliberations of four Congressional committees - all of which passed reform bills out of their respective panels.  Finally, if Cillizza's conclusion that attack dog politics is needed to win the day - Sarah Palin would be Vice President today.

We've said we'd call out people when they get it wrong - and in this case –we believe Cillizza clearly gets it wrong.

What the Polls Show:

“Public support for health reform ended its summer slide, reversed course and moved modestly upwards in September … Fifty-seven percent of Americans now believe that tackling health care reform is more important than ever – up from 53 percent in August. The proportion of Americans who think their families would be better off if health reform passes is up six percentage points (42% versus 36% in August), and the percentage who think that the country would be better off is up eight points (to 53% from 45% in August).” [Kaiser Tracking Poll, 9/29/09] 

According to NBC/WSJ, Obama's approval on health care is 45%-46% compared to 41%-47% in August and 41%-46% in July. [NBC/WSJ, 9/22/09] 

According to NBC/WSJ, Republicans in Congress' disapproval on health care went up to 65% in September from 62% in August. [NBC/WSJ, 9/22/09] 

According to NBC/WSJ, people who think Obama's health care plan is a good idea vs bad idea is 39%-41% versus 36%-42% in July and August. [NBC/WSJ, 9/22/09] 

According to the WP/ABC Poll, only 21% of those polled identify themselves as Republicans, which is equal to the lowest number they've had since 2008. [WP/ABC Poll, 9/13/09]

According to NYT/CBS, Obama approval is 56%-33% compared to 56%-35% in August. [CBS/NYT, 9/25/09]