Why Alex Isenstadt is Wrong

Politico reporter Alex Isenstadt posted a story earlier this morning entitled "Dems alarmed as independents bolt party." However Mr. Isenstadt's claims about the feelings of Democrats were made without even so much as a phone call to the actual Democratic Party. Notwithstanding the problem of attribution, the premise of the story - that Independents are bolting from the Democratic Party at a federal level - is severely suspect. In fact, there is significant evidence that President Obama retains strong numbers across the ideological spectrum and that the real alarm should rest with Republicans who are driving away Independents as they continue to move their own Party to the far right.

In the story, Mr. Isenstadt cites the recent gubernatorial elections as evidence of Independents moving away from the Democratic Party and the President. However, exit polling in Virginia and New Jersey point to the contrary. Voters overwhelmingly said they were voting based on local issues and local candidates. Further - as Mr. Isenstadt's own publication pointed out - voters in both these states gave the President strong approval numbers:

"[I]n New Jersey..., voters were asked if they approved of the job Obama is doing and 57% said they did—even as 49% voted to boot Democrat Jon Corzine out of the governor’s office.

"In Virginia, Obama even posted a 48% approval rate among the right-leaning electorate that turned out yesterday — hardly a sign of broad-based voter anger against Obama."

While Mr. Isenstadt tries to make the case that elections decided on local issues portend a national trend, the only recent election decided on national issues was the special election in NY-23, where - despite a distinct voter registration advantage for Republicans - a Democratic candidate won with the help of Independent voters. In fact, Democrats have won all five special Congressional elections since this Congress was sworn in.

Indeed, the Democratic brand and President Obama's numbers remain strong - especially in comparison to the Republican brand. There are a number of recent polls that support the contention that the President maintains support across the ideological spectrum, including with Independent voters. For example, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, President Obama's job approval among Independent voters is 55% positive. [ABC/Washington Post poll, 10/19/09] Even a recent Fox News poll has the President with a +15 point spread with Independents and with his numbers trending upwards. [Fox News poll, 10/29/09]

The President retains high approval ratings across the board including with Independents - comparable to those he had on Election Day. But the most telling trend for 2010 and beyond is the purge of moderates from the Republican Party by right-wing ideological extremists. As we saw in the NY-23 election, by driving out moderates, the Republican Party is turning off Independents, even in areas where they should have a demographic advantage.

While Mr. Isenstadt chose not to include any of this data which would undermine the premise of the story he chose to write - and which was provided to him once it was learned he was writing it - it does tell a much more accurate story of not only the feelings of the Democratic Party, but also of the state of play of Independent voters.

Comments (2) «

Independents are just that---Independent of any party. The fact that they voted Democratic a year ago, was because they had witnessed 8 years of destruction.

It is all still too raw---too fresh in the minds, to possibly imagine them going back to Republicans.

They may be disappointed in Democrats right now, because of impatience, but if they had to go vote today, not one of them would pull a Red lever, and that goes for next year, too !

1

PamB on November 18, 2009 at 01:20 PM

There are plenty of Democrats who are frustrated, too. We and the Independents expected action instead of stalling by the Old Boys School over at Dithering Heights in the Senate.

Most of the "rules" and maneuvers being used to undo the mandate we gave for change are recent inventions. They were used by the segregationists to stall on civil rights legislation. It's time for Senators to vote on bills instead of playing silly parlor games.

While the President can't make Harry Reid act any more assertive, he could encourage him more. But it's really up to the Democratic caucus to push him. If they don't do it, they will be the ones worrying about their re-election.

Do we need a new leader and attitude in the Senate? You betcha. No one is cracking the whip there like Pelosi did in the House. The problem is either the Senate leadership or the system is broken.

So what is the hang up here? Independents and Democrats are becoming impatient with good reason. Present and vote on bills. Use reconciliation when necessary and stop courting obstructionists who don't want to compromise much less solve any problems.

What's the use of having power if you don't put it to good use? So let's see all the Senators go on record for or against reform. They are only stalling because they don't want to be held accountable; and if that's the case, they don't belong in Washington at all.

The primaries are on the horizon. There will be challenges for those that drag their feet and avoid action. But let's be clear here...nobody but the conservative Deadenders want the incompetent Republicans in charge of the country or anything else for that matter.

There are other Democrats waiting in the wings who will take the job seriously if given the opportunity to serve. It's long past time to weed out the dead wood in the Senate.

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SandyH on November 18, 2009 at 05:34 PM

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