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How Romney might win the Florida primary

All polls in Florida point to a Romney victory in the primary this evening. And yet, when looking at national polling, Romney's favorability is dropping with questions surrounding his time at Bain and consistent flip-flopping throughout his candidacy.

Washington Post polling released yesterday showed that "only 39 percent of Americans overall think Romney understands the problems of average Americans, versus 48 percent who don’t." The poll also showed that moderates, blue-collar whites, and independents all view Romney's Bain work unfavorably.

But if Romney is struggling in national polls, why is he expected to win the Florida primary?

Romney and his super PAC have outspent Newt Gingrich 5 to 1 in television ads in Florida. Politico reports, "Pro-Romney forces have spent $15.4 million versus $3.4 million for Gingrich." Romney and his allies have run 65 times as many ads than Gingrich in Florida, and 92% of those ads have been negative. Do the math: That's approximately $14 million in negative advertising in Florida alone. And in just the last week there's an even starker contrast: Romney and his PAC ran 99.99% in negative advertising against Gingrich (9,744 ads total), and only .005% pro-Romney (54 ads), where by comparison, Gingrich's ads were mostly positive with 59% being pro-Gingrich and only 41% (1,400 ads) being anti-Romney.

When asked directly about the record negative ads in Florida, Romney pushed back claiming that he was "vastly outspent" by Gingrich and his allies on negative ads in South Carolina. The truth? Romney and his super PAC spent a combined $4.6 million on television and radio ads in South Carolina, while Gingrich and his PAC spent $2.2 million.

If Mitt Romney wins the Florida primary, there's only one reason— it's not his stance on immigration, it's not his time at Bain, nor his lies and pandering on immigration, Medicare, or Social Security. It's because he and his friends have flooded the airwaves with $15 million worth of negative advertising.