Rasmussen reports Obama now leads McCain 51 percent to 45 percent. CBS News has Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent.
Even if you know he's a fake, it's a little shocking to see Gerardo Puisseaux close-up.
The Cuban immigrant to Miami is a dead ringer for Barack Obama, from the broad smile to the close-cropped hair.
He was a construction worker in Miami until about six weeks ago, when he hooked up with online Spanish-language news channel America TeVe. Since then, he's been going where Obama goes and causing a stir in each location.
"We make something like a reality show," he said Monday evening, his thick accent proving he's not a soundalike. "We walk in the street with the people."
He draws attention everywhere he goes.
"Sometimes I get tired because everybody stopping me, a lot of questions, sometimes political questions," he says. "I am not Obama."
About a year ago, Puisseaux realized the resemblance. And while Cuban-Americans aren't the biggest faction of the Democratic party, Puisseaux responds, "A fan? Obama? I love him."
Just a little something I threw together. Enjoy!!
Anyone recognize these babies?
Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points.
New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in three polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced.
Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher based on two recent polls. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups.
Florida:Three polls with somewhat different results, but both indicating a close contest. Public Policy Polling says that with the help of Democrats starting to unite behind him and support from Hispanics, Obama is in a dead heat with McCain in this key state, according to its survey June 26-29. Obama leads 46 percent to 44 percent and 10 percent undecided.
Massachusetts: Obama outdistances McCain 53 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women.
Michigan: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.
Virginia: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie in this closely-watched state, with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent and 4 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4 percent.
Ohio: Obama and McCain are in a horse race with Obama out in front by a nose, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.
Colorado: This state is clearly competitive in two recent polls. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents.
Minnesota: A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 had Obama way ahead of McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with a 21 point lead among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent.
Wisconsin: Two polls have Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 42 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19.
New Mexico: There are two recent polls for this state, one showing Obama and McCain in a statistical tie and the other giving Obama a bit more breathing room. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points.
Oregon: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Washington State: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent , in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19.
California: Obama has big leads over McCain in two polls. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey shows him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain.
New Hampshire: Obama has widened his lead over McCain here, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 18.
Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16.
Iowa: A close race so far. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16.
New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 33 percent, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-23. The margin of error is 4 percent.
This ads up to 299 Electoral votes and only 270 are needed to win in November. If Obama continues to climb in the polls as he has over the last 3 weeks we could be watching a landslide in the making.
"He was obsessed with dotting every 'i' and crossing every 't'," Melissa Amschwand-Bellinger recalled about her husband, who died in 2001 at age 30.
But Spherion Corp., the temporary staffing company where Amschwand worked, told Amschwand-Bellinger she would not receive any of the $426,000 in benefits she believed she was due. When she went to court, Spherion succeeded in getting her lawsuit thrown out. The Supreme Court on June 27 refused to review the case.
Amschwand-Bellinger received a refund of the few thousand dollars in insurance premiums she and her husband dutifully had paid. The total, she said, would not cover the costs of his funeral.
The story has played out often under the federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act. Designed to protect employee benefits, the law has been used by employers as a shield against suits.
Federal appeals courts, interpreting Supreme Court decisions dating to 1993, consistently have said companies that offer health, life and retirement benefits under ERISA cannot be sued for large amounts of money, or damages. Instead, they can be sued only for typically smaller sums such as Amschwand's insurance premiums.
Several federal judges have bemoaned the unfairness even as they have felt constrained to rule in favor of employers.
"The facts ... scream out for a remedy beyond the simple return of premiums," Judge Fortunato Benavides of the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said in the Amschwand case. "Regrettably, under existing law it is not available."
The Bush administration has argued that the appeals courts are misreading the precedents and has asked the high court at least twice to clarify the earlier rulings. So far it has refused.
Congress, which could amend ERISA to make clear such suits are allowed, also has taken no action.
The result, in the view of ERISA experts, the administration and some lawmakers, is perverse.
"The beneficiary under the policy didn't get the promised benefit," said Colleen Medill, an expert on ERISA at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. "To say we're just going to return your premiums, that's a total farce. That's not what they paid the premiums for. They paid them for the benefits."
Sen. Patrick Leahy, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said at a recent hearing that before ERISA became law, employees clearly could sue for benefits in state courts.
The court rulings, said Leahy, D-Vt., have left people "more vulnerable than they were before the law was passed."
Spherion's decision to deny benefits to Amschwand-Bellinger turned on an odd set of facts. Spherion, which employs about 300,000 people, switched insurers after Thomas Amschwand was diagnosed with a rare form of heart cancer. The new policy did not take effect until an employee worked one full day. Spherion never informed Amschwand of the requirement.
Amschwand asked repeatedly whether there was anything else he needed to do and was told no. He asked that the new policy be sent to him. Spherion never did so.
He died without returning to work. His widow said he easily could have worked a day if that was what it took to activate the new policy. Spherion could have waived the one-day-of-work provision, as it did for other employees but not for Amschwand.
Spherion spokesman Kip Havel issued a brief statement when contacted by The Associated Press after the high court declined to review the case. "We are pleased the court has made its decision and the matter has finally been resolved," Havel said.
The court also recently turned down an appeal from Louis Gerard "Gerry" Goeres, who sued Charles M. Schwab & Co. over hundreds of thousands of dollars in retirement plan benefits.
For 16 months, Schwab mistakenly refused to acknowledge Goeres as the beneficiary in the retirement plan of his domestic partner, Stephen Ward, a Schwab employee who died in 1999. By the time Schwab acknowledged its error, the value of the account had declined by more than $500,000. Goeres sued for the rest. Federal courts dismissed the suit. "Unfortunately, legal relief is not available," U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer said in ruling against Goeres.
"You know the Schwab commercial, 'Talk to Chuck?'" Goeres said. "I thought if Chuck knew this, he'd say, 'Oh my God, this is so wrong.' I live on naive dreams."
Schwab said in court papers that Goeres could have taken legal action soon after Ward's death, when he first was told he was not the beneficiary.
Amschwand-Bellinger said the cases show the need for either the court or Congress to provide "some sort of meaningful remedy for employees when employers have a breach of fiduciary duty."
A Texas native who lives in an unincorporated Houston suburb, she has since remarried and has an 18-month-old daughter. She is president and executive director of the Amschwand Sarcoma Cancer Foundation, which she founded with her first husband.
She recognizes that she is more fortunate than many others who have fought similarly futile battles for benefits under ERISA. "What if we had had children and I was a stay at home mom?" said Amschwand-Bellinger, who previously worked for a public hospital system. "What if I was 60 years old, with no skill sets, and I had to go back to work?"
HealthDay Reporter
Heading to the polls on Nov. 4? If so, your genes may be driving you there, a new study suggests.
In fact, as much as 50 percent of whether you vote or not may be genetically determined, says a team at the University of California, San Diego. Genes may even be more important to your tendency to cast a ballot than family political history.
"Both nature and nurture play a role in voting," said lead author James H. Fowler, an associate professor of political science. "We expected genes would play a little bit of a role, but we were surprised how strong [a] role they played."
Previously, experts primarily focused on the environmental factors that pushed people to vote. "For a long time, they thought that parents and children have pretty much the same behavior when it comes to voting," Fowler said. "If they voted, it's likely you will go to the polls as well."
But, rather than transmitting ideas, "parents are transmitting genes," Fowler now believes.
He co-authored a report on the issue, published in July's The Journal of Politics.
In the study, Fowler and Ph.D. candidate Christopher T. Dawes drew on voter-turnout data in Los Angeles. They matched that data to a registry of identical and non-identical twins.
According to that analysis, 53 percent of the variation in voter turnout is due to differences in genes.
In fact, family upbringing appears to have little effect on how regularly offspring participate in elections. "The other half of the voting behavior was mostly attributable to the unshared environment between the two twins," Fowler said.
To try to replicate the findings more broadly across the country, Fowler and Dawes looked at nationwide voting patterns using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, which ran from 1994 to 2002.
Using the genetic data in this study, Fowler and Dawes found that 72 percent of differences in voter turnout among identical twins can be accounted for by genes.
Genes also play a significant role in political participation, including giving money to a campaign, contacting a government official, running for office and attending political rallies, the two researchers found.
Fowler and Dawes also looked for specific genes involved in the decision to vote. They found that two genes that influence the brain's serotonin system, called MAOA and 5HTT, were also associated with a person's inclination to cast a ballot. The serotonin system helps regulates trust and social interaction, the experts noted.
In fact, they found that people with more efficient versions of those genes were about 10 percent more likely to vote.
"It's not just the gene that makes you vote, but it has an impact on how susceptible you are to different kinds of environments," Fowler said. "Depending upon what kind of environment you are in, it is going to activate those tendencies you might have to cause you to participate in politics or not."
To thoroughly understand politics, one has to include genetics, Fowler now believes.
"To study politics without genes is to miss half the story," he said. "To really get an understanding of what people are doing and why they are doing it, we need to integrate both nature and nurture into the study of politics," he said.
According to John T. Jost, a professor of psychology at New York University in New York City, this article is another in a growing list of studies suggesting that political orientation is partly heritable.
"In some ways, this conclusion is not so surprising, given that we have known for over 50 years that there are basic cognitive, motivational, and behavioral differences between leftists and rightists," Jost said.
"Unless one believes that basic psychological characteristics have no genetic antecedents whatsoever, one would have anticipated these results on the basis of the psychological literature," Jost said. "Still, it's quite important that these researchers appear to have identified specific gene combinations that are linked to political orientation," he said.
Yes it's true. Congress is actually considering banning the sale of menthol cigarettes. If you don't smoke you are probably thinking "so what?", Well to that I say what's next... beer, candy, yellow cars, blue gum?
If you do smoke you should be concerned because they are trying to tell you what brands you can legally buy.
If you want to chime in on either side write your representatives here: http://www.house.gov
And we wonder why they can't get anything done in Washington!
As the right seeks to portray Michelle Obama as unpatriotic, Dan Abrams says John McCain said much the same thing Obama has been criticized for: He didn't love American until he was "deprived of her company." Dan talks to conservative radio host Lars Larson, The Nation's Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Newsweek's Jonathan Alter and Republican strategist Brad Blakeman.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25274602#25274602
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Yarmuth
CHICAGO, IL – Senator Obama today announced the formation of his Senior Working Group on National Security, a group of advisors that he will consult on a regular basis between now and the election. Obama will meet with the group for the first time today in Washington, DC for a wide-ranging discussion of the immense challenges faced by the United States in the wake of the disastrous foreign policies of George Bush.
"Each individual here today has provided extraordinary service to our nation in the executive branch and Congress. Several have been advising my campaign for some time. We're also honored to be joined by some of Senator Clinton's senior advisors. In the months to come, we'll be reaching out to others, as well as leaders in Congress," Senator Obama said. "The stakes in this election could not be higher. John McCain wants to continue George Bush's foreign policy which has made us less safe, less respected, and less able to lead the world. It's time to change course. It's time to end the war in Iraq responsibly, refocus on Afghanistan and al Qaeda, and renew our global leadership so that we can tackle the huge challenges of the 21st century."
Later today, he will also meet with a group of nearly 40 retired Admirals and Generals to discuss the state of our armed forces, and the challenges facing our military in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the world. This meeting is part of an ongoing dialogue between Senator Obama and current and former military officers of various ranks and views.
Senator Obama's Senior Working Group on National Security includes:
•Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
•Senator David Boren, former Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
•Secretary of State Warren Christopher
•Greg Craig, former director of the State Department Office of Policy Planning
•Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig
•Representative Lee Hamilton, former Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
•Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder
•Dr. Tony Lake, former National Security Advisor
•Senator Sam Nunn, former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
•Secretary of Defense William Perry
•Dr. Susan Rice, former Assistant Secretary of State
•Representative Tim Roemer, 9/11 Commissioner
•Jim Steinberg, former Deputy National Security Advisor
The latest video to come to fruition on YouTube shows John McCain contradicting himself on his support of President Bush. McCain makes the mistake of standing in front of a green screen, and ends up pointing out his own flip-flopping on his similarity to President Bush on policy views. Watch the video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnb2IrsU1Cg
From CNN Political Producer Alexander Marquardt
Obama is leading McCain in swing states in a new poll.
(CNN) – Barack Obama leading John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey.
Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 points — but a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52-40. In Ohio — a state Obama lost to Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March — he’s leading McCain 48-42. And in Florida, where he did not campaign this primary season and lost an unsanctioned Democratic contest, he leads McCain 47-43.
Former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards said Sunday he would have to "seriously" consider another shot at the job if asked by White House hopeful Barack Obama.
But the former senator, who unsuccessfully ran for the party's presidential nomination this year, reaffirmed that he was not actively seeking to be Obama's running mate.
"I'd take anything he asks me to think about seriously, but obviously this is something that I've done and it's not a job I'm seeking," Edwards told ABC News.
Edwards, who was Democrat John Kerry's running mate in the 2004 election won by George W. Bush, told Spanish newspaper Vanguardia earlier this month that "the vice presidency is not a position that I desire."
His comments to ABC appeared to leave open some wiggle room as Obama steps up his vetting of potential VP nominees.
Other Democrats cited by pundits include senators Joseph Biden and Jim Webb, along with Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.
One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.
Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama's prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.
"This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory," said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, "Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds." His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter's in 1980.
"McCain shouldn't win it," said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain's prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.
"It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II," added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. "It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won," Abramowitz said.
What's more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. "These things go in cycles," said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. "The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party."
That desire for change also tends to manifest itself at the end of a president's second term. Only twice in the 20th century has a party won a third consecutive term in the White House, most recently in 1988, when George H.W. Bush replaced the term-limited Ronald Reagan, who was about twice as popular in the last year of his presidency as President George W. Bush is now.
But the biggest obstacle in McCain's path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men's parties lost the presidency in the following election.
Though the Democratic-controlled Congress is nearly as unpopular as the president, Lichtman says the Democrats' 2006 midterm wins resemble the midterm congressional gains of the out-party in 1966 and 1974, which both preceded a retaking of the White House two years later.
One of the few bright spots historians noted is that the public generally does not view McCain as a traditional Republican. And, as Republicans frequently point out, McCain is not an incumbent.
"Open-seat elections are somewhat different, so the referendum aspect is somewhat muted," said James Campbell, a professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo who specializes in campaigns and elections.
"McCain would be in much better shape if Bush's approval rating were at 45 to 50 percent," Campbell continued. "But the history is that in-party candidates are not penalized or rewarded to the same degree as incumbents."
Campbell still casts McCain as the underdog. But he said McCain might have more appeal to moderates than Obama if the electorate decides McCain is "center right" while Obama is "far left." Democrats have been repeatedly undone when their nominee was viewed as too liberal, and even as polls show a rise in the number of self-identified Democrats, there has been no corresponding increase in the number of self-identified liberals.
Campbell also notes that McCain may benefit from the Democratic divisions that were on display in the primary, as Republicans did in 1968, when Democratic divisions over the war in Vietnam dogged Humphrey and helped hand Nixon victory.
Still, many historians remain extremely skeptical about McCain's prospects. "I can't think of an upset where the underdog faced quite the odds that McCain faces in this election," said Sidney Milkis, a professor of presidential politics at the University of Virginia. Even "Truman didn't face as difficult a political context as McCain."
Every time you fill up your gas tank you are sending your $$$ to Saudi Arabia (who boycotts American products by the way) or other middle eastern countries and none of them are our friends contrary to popular belief.
These companies import middle eastern oil:
Shell: 205,000,000 barrels per day
Chevron/Texaco: 150,000,000 barrels per day
Exxon /Mobil: 150,000,000 barrels per day
Marathon/Speedway: 200,000,000 barrels per day
Amoco: 63,000,000 barrels per day
The U.S. currently imports about 6,000,000 barrels of oil a day from OPEC. That's about $600 million a day we're sending to our enemies in the middle east so they can spend the money killing our troops or in the case of Iran building nuclear weapons.
The only way to begin to break our dependence on middle eastern oil is for you to buy gas from companies that don't import middle eastern oil:
These companies don't import middle eastern oil:
Sunoco
Conoco
Sinclair
BP / Phillips
Hess
ARCO
Maverick
Flying J
Valero
Murphy Oil USA
Our elected officials really don't have the power to do much about the price of gas so it's up to us to make a move. Once the companies listed above who import middle eastern oil see their sales drop to almost nothing you can bet they will get the message!
MCCAIN SUCKS MCCAIN SUCKS MCCAIN SUCKS MCCAIN SUCKS
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That's pretty much how I feel, how about you?
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