griffith lighton's Blog
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One of the means for manipulating prices to cause deflation in the neo-classical economic era is to black box the process; to make it the exclusive domain of the commanders.
A way to see in the black is with inferential indicators, isolating the variable and then solving for it with the known values.
In the case of the peak price for oil indicating a high level of speculative demand were the stochastic indicators on the users of the commodity, for example. The oversold condition was never enough to suggest a fundamental cause for the overbought price of oil. User markets always behaved as though a big sell off was imminent, and it was.
The general inflation that results in a deflationary trend of the economy has been instilled. As the dollar strengthens with the reduction of a basic input cost, economic activity will increase and "capitalize" on the baked in high prices, enhancing the profit margin and the speculative value of the dollar and equities prices (a capital gain).
The cost of producing the capital gain (the surplused value), of course, is the rise in prices (inflation) and unemployment (reduced purchasing power), or stagflation--profits without growth that will be described as a recovery.
The winners and losers are in zero-sum and defines a person's participatory status in the economy--whether you are paying the economic rent or receiving it.
A way to see in the black is with inferential indicators, isolating the variable and then solving for it with the known values.
In the case of the peak price for oil indicating a high level of speculative demand were the stochastic indicators on the users of the commodity, for example. The oversold condition was never enough to suggest a fundamental cause for the overbought price of oil. User markets always behaved as though a big sell off was imminent, and it was.
The general inflation that results in a deflationary trend of the economy has been instilled. As the dollar strengthens with the reduction of a basic input cost, economic activity will increase and "capitalize" on the baked in high prices, enhancing the profit margin and the speculative value of the dollar and equities prices (a capital gain).
The cost of producing the capital gain (the surplused value), of course, is the rise in prices (inflation) and unemployment (reduced purchasing power), or stagflation--profits without growth that will be described as a recovery.
The winners and losers are in zero-sum and defines a person's participatory status in the economy--whether you are paying the economic rent or receiving it.
Poland plans to deploy tactical missiles on its soil.
Russia says it makes Poland a Russian target.
The move is extremely destabilizing and is encouraged by the Bush administration.
The Russians need to be assured the West does not have military designs in its region.
While the missiles are purportedly defensive, the Russians must now target Poland as a possible offensive target. There better never be an occasion for the Russians to believe, or want to believe, that the missiles are not verifiably defensive.
It is extremely destabilizing--what elites bank on for a legitimacy of power.
This needs a skilled pragmatist with a superb diplomatic style and a high moral intelligence.
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
Russia says it makes Poland a Russian target.
The move is extremely destabilizing and is encouraged by the Bush administration.
The Russians need to be assured the West does not have military designs in its region.
While the missiles are purportedly defensive, the Russians must now target Poland as a possible offensive target. There better never be an occasion for the Russians to believe, or want to believe, that the missiles are not verifiably defensive.
It is extremely destabilizing--what elites bank on for a legitimacy of power.
This needs a skilled pragmatist with a superb diplomatic style and a high moral intelligence.
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
Obama is being characterized as an impractical ideologue bent on driving our nation into a dour inefficiency.
Quite the contrary. The retrace we are seeing in the value of the dollar, for example, is due to the investment consumers made reducing demand for energy. That was an immediate addition to supply that Obama very robustly advocated and the McCain camp ridiculed, comparing Obama to mindless wastrels of cafe society.
If you want the evidence for dour inefficiency, look no farther than what we have now that McCain and company say they will continue. It is the product of a mindless ideology independent of what is the right thing to do.
If you want to be assured of mindless inefficiencies, vote for McCain.
If you want practical policies and programs that work for your best interest with easily verifiable results that you directly relate to, like paying the mortgage and saving for retirement, vote for Obama!
Very best wishes.
Quite the contrary. The retrace we are seeing in the value of the dollar, for example, is due to the investment consumers made reducing demand for energy. That was an immediate addition to supply that Obama very robustly advocated and the McCain camp ridiculed, comparing Obama to mindless wastrels of cafe society.
If you want the evidence for dour inefficiency, look no farther than what we have now that McCain and company say they will continue. It is the product of a mindless ideology independent of what is the right thing to do.
If you want to be assured of mindless inefficiencies, vote for McCain.
If you want practical policies and programs that work for your best interest with easily verifiable results that you directly relate to, like paying the mortgage and saving for retirement, vote for Obama!
Very best wishes.
http://griffithlighton.blogspot.com/
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Private equity funds have commanded the overbought condition of oil to be over. The consumer's investment in the price by sacrificing demand has been baked in.
The bad news is that deflation has been accomplished and inflation has been baked in. The return on the consumer's investment is slow-to-no-growth and an inflation rate that has not been seen since the era of Reaganomics.
If you are rich, it's all positive. What does that indicate?
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
The bad news is that deflation has been accomplished and inflation has been baked in. The return on the consumer's investment is slow-to-no-growth and an inflation rate that has not been seen since the era of Reaganomics.
If you are rich, it's all positive. What does that indicate?
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
The SEC is inquiring into "front running" trades.
The Securities and Exchange Commission asked about a dozen brokers for transaction records and other documents focusing on allegations that some firms are "front running," or using inside information to trade before clients make a big move in the market.
The SEC also currently has 150 cases of back-dated stock options. A backlog has occurred as the agency determines a precedent for the remedy.
Front-running and back-dating are indicators of a rampant culture of corruption within the corporate and among our captains of the economy. The practices, while the ultimate ignominy, are considered to be a mark of "class" distinction.
The way our economy is being run in this consolidated mode is nothing but gangster-capitalism!
This needs to completely change if we want to live in a civil society.
CEO's are saying they don't like Obama's negative rhetoric on corporate culture. A sure cure for that will be to reverse the overwhelming evidence of fraud and abusive practices.
The criticism of Obama's rhetoric just supports the hypothesis that the corporate form of power and limited liability has become abusive. It is so powerfully entrenched that even criticizing it is not OK. The legal legitimacy of power, however, both public and private, both politically and economically, is the consent of the governed, not the command of the governed.
Obama for civil society!
The Securities and Exchange Commission asked about a dozen brokers for transaction records and other documents focusing on allegations that some firms are "front running," or using inside information to trade before clients make a big move in the market.
The SEC also currently has 150 cases of back-dated stock options. A backlog has occurred as the agency determines a precedent for the remedy.
Front-running and back-dating are indicators of a rampant culture of corruption within the corporate and among our captains of the economy. The practices, while the ultimate ignominy, are considered to be a mark of "class" distinction.
The way our economy is being run in this consolidated mode is nothing but gangster-capitalism!
This needs to completely change if we want to live in a civil society.
CEO's are saying they don't like Obama's negative rhetoric on corporate culture. A sure cure for that will be to reverse the overwhelming evidence of fraud and abusive practices.
The criticism of Obama's rhetoric just supports the hypothesis that the corporate form of power and limited liability has become abusive. It is so powerfully entrenched that even criticizing it is not OK. The legal legitimacy of power, however, both public and private, both politically and economically, is the consent of the governed, not the command of the governed.
Obama for civil society!
Yes, and no.
Back in the year 2000 I remember many analysts were bullish on corn futures and oil futures at the same time.
They should not be bullish at the same time except that there was a subsidy being considered for ethanol with the peak price of oil, and that subsidy would be sustained to preserve the value of the substitute when the price of oil oversold and retraced the value.
Analysts, like A.G. Edwards, were wrong to downgrade ethanol. The subsidy has always been intended to be maintained despite the trade off with higher food prices. Investors unduly lost the value of their investment in ethanol that A.G. Edwards knowingly bought cheap after a big capital gain on the short side. It is argued to be a misfeasance but it is a malfeasance.
The peak price of corn has effectively retraced with the high speculative demand for oil.
If you look down the chain of causation, the ethanol subsidy is not actually causing high food prices, the price per barrel of oil is. That is what gives the subsidy its value that integrated oil and gas companies have every intention to buy into as they commence destruction of its value as the peak price of a barrel is sold off.
BP has already made that move with a huge investment in Verinium Corporation with the recent retrace (alternative value destruction) of the oil price, that BP admits is a fundamental fraud at its peak.
Price gouging on ethanol is assured with "integration" into an industry segment known as "integrated oil and gas."
Consolidation is the problem. Deconsolidation is the solution.
Very best wishes.
Back in the year 2000 I remember many analysts were bullish on corn futures and oil futures at the same time.
They should not be bullish at the same time except that there was a subsidy being considered for ethanol with the peak price of oil, and that subsidy would be sustained to preserve the value of the substitute when the price of oil oversold and retraced the value.
Analysts, like A.G. Edwards, were wrong to downgrade ethanol. The subsidy has always been intended to be maintained despite the trade off with higher food prices. Investors unduly lost the value of their investment in ethanol that A.G. Edwards knowingly bought cheap after a big capital gain on the short side. It is argued to be a misfeasance but it is a malfeasance.
The peak price of corn has effectively retraced with the high speculative demand for oil.
If you look down the chain of causation, the ethanol subsidy is not actually causing high food prices, the price per barrel of oil is. That is what gives the subsidy its value that integrated oil and gas companies have every intention to buy into as they commence destruction of its value as the peak price of a barrel is sold off.
BP has already made that move with a huge investment in Verinium Corporation with the recent retrace (alternative value destruction) of the oil price, that BP admits is a fundamental fraud at its peak.
Price gouging on ethanol is assured with "integration" into an industry segment known as "integrated oil and gas."
Consolidation is the problem. Deconsolidation is the solution.
Very best wishes.
Nothing really unexpected about that. Refineries cut production to support the price against the declining demand, erasing the consumers investment (the profit margin on the energy cost) to increase supply. Now the consumer's investment will be inverted, reversed, to a loss by command in the marketplace. The reversal was fully expected, just not equitable. The inequity is now just the fact accomplished...so sue the bastards!
Difficulty with the accuracy of the inventory data is the "Enron effect."
Notice also that the gap-up in the price of oil CAUSED a gap-down in the value of the dollar. The causal relationship was narrated in reverse before the correction on the oversold condition. That's called fraud and misrepresentation that is possible only by a non-pluralistic, organized command and control. The consumer is left with no choice (no pluralism) but to do business with the frauds.
Markets, if truly free, legitimately operate on demand, not command.
Both the problem and the solution are clearly indicated.
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
Difficulty with the accuracy of the inventory data is the "Enron effect."
Notice also that the gap-up in the price of oil CAUSED a gap-down in the value of the dollar. The causal relationship was narrated in reverse before the correction on the oversold condition. That's called fraud and misrepresentation that is possible only by a non-pluralistic, organized command and control. The consumer is left with no choice (no pluralism) but to do business with the frauds.
Markets, if truly free, legitimately operate on demand, not command.
Both the problem and the solution are clearly indicated.
Obama 2008!
Very best wishes.
Cotton futures are inordinately up.
Despite supply being at a near record high due to slumping demand (recession), the futures price has been driven to a peak level.
Institutional investors (private equity, hedge funds) have moved into this market segment. Not only are the end users beset with a recessionary demand but now have to pay an inordinately high price for the input. The action of the consolidated capital is entirely detrimental.
Not only has consolidation caused the recession, it is making it impossible for businesses to hedge their input prices through futures markets, which is what it is for. The result is less demand and even more UNEMPLOYMENT. So much for arguing that private capital and the big corporates are the hand that feeds us. No. It is the hand depriving us, and if they are paying no taxes, and being subsidized directly and indirectly, we are paying them to do it!
The price, like it is with oil, is not fundamental. It is speculative and indicates a very unhealthy economy.
Also consider that the speculative demand commanding this high price is de facto price manipulation. That is a crime. Considering prosecution to be "biting the hand that feeds us" is nothing but the sentiments of an ideologue. Control for ideology and what is left is proper understanding, and the solution to our problems.
Deconsolidate the capital and prosecute the criminals! What will be left is a more civil society that is more concerned with supporting those that provide than deprive.
Very best wishes.
Despite supply being at a near record high due to slumping demand (recession), the futures price has been driven to a peak level.
Institutional investors (private equity, hedge funds) have moved into this market segment. Not only are the end users beset with a recessionary demand but now have to pay an inordinately high price for the input. The action of the consolidated capital is entirely detrimental.
Not only has consolidation caused the recession, it is making it impossible for businesses to hedge their input prices through futures markets, which is what it is for. The result is less demand and even more UNEMPLOYMENT. So much for arguing that private capital and the big corporates are the hand that feeds us. No. It is the hand depriving us, and if they are paying no taxes, and being subsidized directly and indirectly, we are paying them to do it!
The price, like it is with oil, is not fundamental. It is speculative and indicates a very unhealthy economy.
Also consider that the speculative demand commanding this high price is de facto price manipulation. That is a crime. Considering prosecution to be "biting the hand that feeds us" is nothing but the sentiments of an ideologue. Control for ideology and what is left is proper understanding, and the solution to our problems.
Deconsolidate the capital and prosecute the criminals! What will be left is a more civil society that is more concerned with supporting those that provide than deprive.
Very best wishes.
Monitoring pop media outlets for the latest stories for public consumption on why markets move the way they do (reality by narrative)--a variable for determining market sentiment at the margin, I heard a presenter say that the strengthening dollar "is also due to the big drop in oil prices."
You may recall I spent a lot of time debunking the "weak dollar causes the high price of oil" hypothesis.
According to this hypothesis, the stronger dollar should be the cause, not the effect, of falling oil prices. For an economic planner, any business person, this is a BIG difference. It makes you have to chase the momentum to hedge the input prices. Don't do that! It's a trap...a liquidity trap!
The only reason markets are moving up or down is solely because of the movement of an overconsolidated (an illegitimate) capital. It is not the operation of a legitimate free market. The beneficiary is the consolidated capital.
Now that the big hoax on what drives the value of a barrel of oil and the massive consolidation of the wealth occurred (victims including small businesses that now can't borrow to survive due to the liquidity crisis), we get the real story on the retrace as we experience the weak dollar recovery heading into the November election.
Now is the time to mix some truth with the lies to give your game some credibility. It's nothing but a cheap con game. The only reason it was successful is because it had the force and legitimacy of government authority.
Time for that to change!
Obama 2008!
You may recall I spent a lot of time debunking the "weak dollar causes the high price of oil" hypothesis.
According to this hypothesis, the stronger dollar should be the cause, not the effect, of falling oil prices. For an economic planner, any business person, this is a BIG difference. It makes you have to chase the momentum to hedge the input prices. Don't do that! It's a trap...a liquidity trap!
The only reason markets are moving up or down is solely because of the movement of an overconsolidated (an illegitimate) capital. It is not the operation of a legitimate free market. The beneficiary is the consolidated capital.
Now that the big hoax on what drives the value of a barrel of oil and the massive consolidation of the wealth occurred (victims including small businesses that now can't borrow to survive due to the liquidity crisis), we get the real story on the retrace as we experience the weak dollar recovery heading into the November election.
Now is the time to mix some truth with the lies to give your game some credibility. It's nothing but a cheap con game. The only reason it was successful is because it had the force and legitimacy of government authority.
Time for that to change!
Obama 2008!
There have been some positivists that have suggested eliminating the corporate tax because it always results in the inability to budget with improbable revenue projections (just as neo-conservatives planned).
Don't buy into that!
A strict progressive tax code with no exceptions on ALL incomes is in order. Once the budgeting process is stabilized with accurate projections of revenue to expenditures, then make the adjustments to the tax liability based on the investments that need to be made to ensure a free and unconsolidated marketplace that will make a flat rate evermore equitable.
The way it is now, lowering the corporate tax rate means that small businesses and non-elite incomes will be paying a negative corporate tax rate--effectively raising the "economic rent" of classical economic theory and the Hamiltonian model of government.
What we need is the antithesis of that!
Obama 2008!
Don't buy into that!
A strict progressive tax code with no exceptions on ALL incomes is in order. Once the budgeting process is stabilized with accurate projections of revenue to expenditures, then make the adjustments to the tax liability based on the investments that need to be made to ensure a free and unconsolidated marketplace that will make a flat rate evermore equitable.
The way it is now, lowering the corporate tax rate means that small businesses and non-elite incomes will be paying a negative corporate tax rate--effectively raising the "economic rent" of classical economic theory and the Hamiltonian model of government.
What we need is the antithesis of that!
Obama 2008!
Deconsolidate the capital and delete the "enron effect" and going green has all the credibility it needs to be a sustainable policy.
Otherwise, destruction of the alternative value will occur by operation of consolidated industries, markets and capital, and control of the data that determines policy and programs.
Very best wishes.
Otherwise, destruction of the alternative value will occur by operation of consolidated industries, markets and capital, and control of the data that determines policy and programs.
Very best wishes.
If you don't own and operate a self-storage facility and flip foreclosed properties, you aren't making any money!
There's a reason for that... George W. Bush and his would-be successor John McCain. The policies and programs they support have driven your business into a recession predicted to be at least six quarters long with the current technicals. Even after six quarters it isn't going to be good.
Let's make it good. Dump the neo-conservatives that have driven your business into the ground by making you shoulder the tax burden AND pay that gigantic budget deficit and public debt.
You can change it for the short and long term, starting now.
Build the coalition for Barack Obama.
He has the skill, he has the understanding, he has the commitment to ensure the macro technicals that are favorable to YOU and the growth of YOUR business. That is not what you have now!
Support Barack Obama!
Very best wishes.
There's a reason for that... George W. Bush and his would-be successor John McCain. The policies and programs they support have driven your business into a recession predicted to be at least six quarters long with the current technicals. Even after six quarters it isn't going to be good.
Let's make it good. Dump the neo-conservatives that have driven your business into the ground by making you shoulder the tax burden AND pay that gigantic budget deficit and public debt.
You can change it for the short and long term, starting now.
Build the coalition for Barack Obama.
He has the skill, he has the understanding, he has the commitment to ensure the macro technicals that are favorable to YOU and the growth of YOUR business. That is not what you have now!
Support Barack Obama!
Very best wishes.
BP shut down a pipeline in the embattled Georgia region of Eastern Europe.
There's that support for oil and gas to European markets and the leverage the new Russian plutocrats want to support their power, which includes the Georgian elites.
There's that support for oil and gas to European markets and the leverage the new Russian plutocrats want to support their power, which includes the Georgian elites.
There's that weak dollar recovery I was telling you about, timed to the election cycle very nicely.
The Commerce department reported an "unexpected" drop in the trade deficit.
Must not follow the discussion on this site.... Yeah, right. They're all Republican civil "servants" just like over at Justice.
Obama 2008!
The Commerce department reported an "unexpected" drop in the trade deficit.
Must not follow the discussion on this site.... Yeah, right. They're all Republican civil "servants" just like over at Justice.
Obama 2008!
The GAO released a report today using IRS data that shows most domestic and foreign corporations paid no federal income taxes. (www.gao.gov)
Two-thirds paid no income taxes between 1998 and 2005. About 25% have assets over $250 million and receipts over $50 million. Read More »
Two-thirds paid no income taxes between 1998 and 2005. About 25% have assets over $250 million and receipts over $50 million. Read More »
If you are running a predictive program algorithm on financials, then you need to program the signals to buy and sell. If you program the data points, then you know what the outcome will be from the inside, because you programed it.
So you see how this works. It is not a free-market economy. It is a command economy determined solely by the movement of a consolidated capital.
That's why commodities have sold off without any of the fundamentals that were narrated with the data points having changed at all. The data points are real, the narration a fraud.
Your risk is perfectly zero if you know what the signals for the data points are. That would be inside information, and by definition, if the program is being run to determine the outcome of making a profit without risk because you have determined it, not predicted it, that is the commission of a crime.
Both the program and the narration to explain the effects of the program is a fraud in the marketplace--rigging the market.
Prosecute the criminals!
If a free and unconsolidated marketplace is what you want, don't vote for John McCain and company.
A vote for freedom is a vote for Obama!
Very best wishes.
So you see how this works. It is not a free-market economy. It is a command economy determined solely by the movement of a consolidated capital.
That's why commodities have sold off without any of the fundamentals that were narrated with the data points having changed at all. The data points are real, the narration a fraud.
Your risk is perfectly zero if you know what the signals for the data points are. That would be inside information, and by definition, if the program is being run to determine the outcome of making a profit without risk because you have determined it, not predicted it, that is the commission of a crime.
Both the program and the narration to explain the effects of the program is a fraud in the marketplace--rigging the market.
Prosecute the criminals!
If a free and unconsolidated marketplace is what you want, don't vote for John McCain and company.
A vote for freedom is a vote for Obama!
Very best wishes.
Programing Corporate Society
Game theory (mathematical modeling) permeates and determines our existence more than you may think.
For example, what is the probability of doing harm to another person, like any sort of deprivation, if you have to deliberately and directly do the harm? Not very high, and if the probability is high, you will be considered a very uncivil human being if not the criminal element.
Super computing and high end physics has produced a discipline for modeling the probabilities of causal relationships being applied to politics and economics. Very simply, "if this, then this" statements are recurrently improved by feedback of the outcome toward a perfectly predictable correlation to achieve a hard social determinism so that value can be extracted by operation of the program without a direct liability.
You know the expression if you are being accused of being deviant, "get with the program," and if you are accused of a liability because you were acting according to the program, your liability (accountability) is securely limited.
If you are a small investor and always found you could not affect the bid but always ended up chasing the momentum, for example, you are victim of this modeling; and don't just take my word for it, but the modeled determinism masquerading as freedom of choice is not limited to financials.
If your impression of this social engineering is the pinnacle of a deep, dark existentialism characteristic of the faceless corporate evolved through the 20th Century and being confirmed into the 21st, you would be right!
It's time for a complete makeover of the body politic.
Let freedom reign, starting now.
Obama 2008!
P.S.
Notice how the word "pluralism" was not mentioned in this article. Ooops!
Very best wishes.
Game theory (mathematical modeling) permeates and determines our existence more than you may think.
For example, what is the probability of doing harm to another person, like any sort of deprivation, if you have to deliberately and directly do the harm? Not very high, and if the probability is high, you will be considered a very uncivil human being if not the criminal element.
Super computing and high end physics has produced a discipline for modeling the probabilities of causal relationships being applied to politics and economics. Very simply, "if this, then this" statements are recurrently improved by feedback of the outcome toward a perfectly predictable correlation to achieve a hard social determinism so that value can be extracted by operation of the program without a direct liability.
You know the expression if you are being accused of being deviant, "get with the program," and if you are accused of a liability because you were acting according to the program, your liability (accountability) is securely limited.
If you are a small investor and always found you could not affect the bid but always ended up chasing the momentum, for example, you are victim of this modeling; and don't just take my word for it, but the modeled determinism masquerading as freedom of choice is not limited to financials.
If your impression of this social engineering is the pinnacle of a deep, dark existentialism characteristic of the faceless corporate evolved through the 20th Century and being confirmed into the 21st, you would be right!
It's time for a complete makeover of the body politic.
Let freedom reign, starting now.
Obama 2008!
P.S.
Notice how the word "pluralism" was not mentioned in this article. Ooops!
Very best wishes.
Law of Bad Numbers
One time when I was referring to "the law of averages" with an analyst in reference to the probability for unfavorable data, he referred to it as "the law of bad numbers."
We've been observing and discussing the empirical evidence that indicates the direction of political and economic events for quite some time together. Unfortunately, the numbers, as predicted, are getting worse.
Ironically, it is getting harder to borrow money for any purpose. The only people that can borrow are people that don't need to borrow. You'l never guess what political economic model that fits... the Hamiltonian model. Read More »
One time when I was referring to "the law of averages" with an analyst in reference to the probability for unfavorable data, he referred to it as "the law of bad numbers."
We've been observing and discussing the empirical evidence that indicates the direction of political and economic events for quite some time together. Unfortunately, the numbers, as predicted, are getting worse.
Ironically, it is getting harder to borrow money for any purpose. The only people that can borrow are people that don't need to borrow. You'l never guess what political economic model that fits... the Hamiltonian model. Read More »
There has been a lot of scaremongering over the possible variations of progressing the tax code, like increasing the capital gains tax. It would be progressive because most of the wealth (at least 70% owned by the top 10% of incomes conservatively stated) is held in the form of value that produces a capital gain without economic growth. It just keeps churning the wealth in stagnation to be consolidated at record, and crisis, levels.
If the trend to general crisis is to be reversed, the solution, a more progressive tax code, is readily apparent and easily applied.
Read more at http://griffithlighton.blogspot.com/
(copy and paste the URL in the browser window).
If the trend to general crisis is to be reversed, the solution, a more progressive tax code, is readily apparent and easily applied.
Read more at http://griffithlighton.blogspot.com/
(copy and paste the URL in the browser window).
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