The electoral math, where we are today...
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Below is a list of states where Obama is leading McCain now and will most likely win in November. There are others where he's closing the gap but I'm only focusing on states that are pretty much "in the bag".
Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points.
New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in three polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced.
Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher based on two recent polls. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups.
Florida:Three polls with somewhat different results, but both indicating a close contest. Public Policy Polling says that with the help of Democrats starting to unite behind him and support from Hispanics, Obama is in a dead heat with McCain in this key state, according to its survey June 26-29. Obama leads 46 percent to 44 percent and 10 percent undecided.
Massachusetts: Obama outdistances McCain 53 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women.
Michigan: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.
Virginia: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie in this closely-watched state, with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent and 4 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4 percent.
Ohio: Obama and McCain are in a horse race with Obama out in front by a nose, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.
Colorado: This state is clearly competitive in two recent polls. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents.
Minnesota: A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 had Obama way ahead of McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with a 21 point lead among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent.
Wisconsin: Two polls have Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 42 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19.
New Mexico: There are two recent polls for this state, one showing Obama and McCain in a statistical tie and the other giving Obama a bit more breathing room. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points.
Oregon: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Washington State: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent , in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19.
California: Obama has big leads over McCain in two polls. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey shows him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain.
New Hampshire: Obama has widened his lead over McCain here, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 18.
Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16.
Iowa: A close race so far. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16.
New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 33 percent, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-23. The margin of error is 4 percent.
This ads up to 299 Electoral votes and only 270 are needed to win in November. If Obama continues to climb in the polls as he has over the last 3 weeks we could be watching a landslide in the making.
Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points.
New York: Obama is leading McCain by huge margins in three polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 30 has him ahead of McCain 60 percent to 29 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. Obama is viewed favorably by 67 percent of voters compared to 48 percent for McCain. Thirty-nine percent believe McCain is too old to be President while 52 percent reject the idea that Obama is too inexperienced.
Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher based on two recent polls. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups.
Florida:Three polls with somewhat different results, but both indicating a close contest. Public Policy Polling says that with the help of Democrats starting to unite behind him and support from Hispanics, Obama is in a dead heat with McCain in this key state, according to its survey June 26-29. Obama leads 46 percent to 44 percent and 10 percent undecided.
Massachusetts: Obama outdistances McCain 53 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women.
Michigan: Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.
Virginia: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie in this closely-watched state, with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent and 4 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4 percent.
Ohio: Obama and McCain are in a horse race with Obama out in front by a nose, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.
Colorado: This state is clearly competitive in two recent polls. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 17-24 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Obama has a 12 point lead among independents.
Minnesota: A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 had Obama way ahead of McCain 54 percent to 37 percent with a 21 point lead among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent.
Wisconsin: Two polls have Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 42 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19.
New Mexico: There are two recent polls for this state, one showing Obama and McCain in a statistical tie and the other giving Obama a bit more breathing room. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Indiana: One of the close states. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 21-23. The margin of error is 4 points.
Oregon: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.
Washington State: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent , in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 17-19.
California: Obama has big leads over McCain in two polls. A June 23 Rasmussen Reports survey shows him leading 58 percent to 30 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Californians compared to 43 percent for McCain.
New Hampshire: Obama has widened his lead over McCain here, running ahead of him by 50 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 18.
Maine: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 16.
Iowa: A close race so far. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16.
New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 33 percent, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-23. The margin of error is 4 percent.
This ads up to 299 Electoral votes and only 270 are needed to win in November. If Obama continues to climb in the polls as he has over the last 3 weeks we could be watching a landslide in the making.
