Southern Strategy
There seems to be a widespread idea in our Democrat camp that a Democrat can win the White House without carrying a single Southern state. Gore tried this. He lost. Kerry tried this. He lost.
Howard Dean is correct when he says that the only way we will be a national party is to have a strong network of supporters in every state. The 50 state canvass is a good idea.
It is not impossible to win in the South. Look at the House. Look at the Senate. There are Democrats who can be (and who have been) elected in the South.
However, the idea that our party can win enough electoral votes without carrying a single Southern state seems to be prominent. And disturbing.
So let's look at our Southern states. We'll begin by looking at how many electoral votes they have.
The South Atlantic States:
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
North Carolina - 15
South Carolina - 8
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
The East South Central States:
Alabama - 9
Kentucky - 8
Mississippi - 6
Tennessee - 11
The West South Central States:
Arkansas - 6
Louisianna - 9
Oklahoma - 7
Texas - 34
The total electoral votes is 173. That is far too many votes to concede to the Republicans. If we want to win--and not just win by the skin of our teeth--we need to be competitive in more than just one or two of these states.
In the coming weeks, we'll discuss each state and its voting history, their current elected officials, and then gauge what we should do and how we can win those votes.
Also, we will try to dispell the myth that we cannot win in the South and maybe in the process we'll rid some misconceptions of the South.
Hope you stay along for the journey.
AK
Howard Dean is correct when he says that the only way we will be a national party is to have a strong network of supporters in every state. The 50 state canvass is a good idea.
It is not impossible to win in the South. Look at the House. Look at the Senate. There are Democrats who can be (and who have been) elected in the South.
However, the idea that our party can win enough electoral votes without carrying a single Southern state seems to be prominent. And disturbing.
So let's look at our Southern states. We'll begin by looking at how many electoral votes they have.
The South Atlantic States:
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
North Carolina - 15
South Carolina - 8
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
The East South Central States:
Alabama - 9
Kentucky - 8
Mississippi - 6
Tennessee - 11
The West South Central States:
Arkansas - 6
Louisianna - 9
Oklahoma - 7
Texas - 34
The total electoral votes is 173. That is far too many votes to concede to the Republicans. If we want to win--and not just win by the skin of our teeth--we need to be competitive in more than just one or two of these states.
In the coming weeks, we'll discuss each state and its voting history, their current elected officials, and then gauge what we should do and how we can win those votes.
Also, we will try to dispell the myth that we cannot win in the South and maybe in the process we'll rid some misconceptions of the South.
Hope you stay along for the journey.
AK
At the same time, efforts such as Howard Dean's (during his campaign, I mean) often result in the candidates looking more foolish. Better, probably, to instead run on issues and make it clear how those issues affect the South and would benefit Southern states and people.
I know you said you had more to write later-I look forward to your proposals.
I think it is very possible. I believe the South is as fed up with incompetence and destruction as the rest of the country. But it's important not to pander or slit our own throats.
Anyway, I'm going to dig up a link to a post by another blogger from last week and comment again on this post with a link to that one. If you didn't see it at the original time it was up on the board, have a look at it - you might find some things worth discussing more in depth.
Link
By Lee Bandy
SouthCarolinaInsider
(4/10/07) U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary crown, leaving the candidacy of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in a cloud of dust.
The news stunned political experts and pundits.
“Obama has started a brush fire across the country†that Clinton may find difficult to quench, said Francis Marion University polit1ical scientist Neal Thigpen.
“Obama clearly has got momentum,†said Winthrop University professor Scott Huffmon.
The Illinois senator’s showing represents a complete turnaround for Obama who trailed in earlier South Carolina surveys.
Today, Obama holds a comfortable lead in South Carolina, according to a new telephone poll.
He leads with 34 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Clinton with 20 percent.
What is worrisome for the Clinton campaign is that she is in danger of slipping into third place in South Carolina. The poll shows that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is only three percentage points away from overtaking Clinton.
Matt Towery, chief executive officer of the Atlanta-based polling firm Insider Advantage, was somewhat surprised by the Obama showing.
“The margin of Obama’s lead in South Carolina was stronger than I expected this early in the race,†he said.
Obama was the overwhelming choice of blacks, winning 33 percent of the African-American community, to 28 percent for Cliinton.
That represents a sharp shift in black sentiment since both candidates announced their candidacy. Obama was unknown at the time.
“More and more blacks are for him,†Thigpen said. “A lot didn’t know him at the time of his announcement. That changed as more came to hear him and know him.â€
The telephone poll was taken of 500 registered Democratic voters April 6-8.
The good news couldn’t have come at a better time for Obama. On Friday, he will put in a campaign appearance in Florence where he will conduct a noon community meeting on healthcare services.
That will be followed by an address that evening to the South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus at its annual dinner in Columbia. Clinton tried to get invited but was turned down.
Mo Elleitlee, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, dismissed the latest South Carolina poll numbers.
“Itâ& #8364;™s way too early in the campaign to be talking about polls,†he said. “Polls don’t mean that much right now.â€
He then added, “Weâ& #8364;™re .looking forward to the debates.â€
Huffmon cautioned the Obama folks not to get too cocky.
“Hillary has got a lot of money to help make up for the lost ground,†he said, noting that she raised $26 million the first quarter and that she has access to millions more.
Obama pretty much matched her dollar for dollars in that first reporting period.
The $64,000 question is can Obama sustain the momentum he has? How will he measure up against the competition?
The upcoming debates April 26 will be crucial.
;p
In 08, we really need to nominate John Edwards. I'm not saying it is right, but Hillary or Obama will get slaughtered in the south. Mark my words.