Projection: Disappointment
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INDIANA

Hillary Clinton wins the north-eastern populus catholic South Bend, Notre Dame population as well as the southern conservative Louisville population. In addition, she gets the republican Limbaugh vote. While this may be expected by "analyst projections" it takes an unexpected chunk out of the youth and grad vote which normally votes Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA

Hillary Clinton performs well in the mountainous south and the Bubba vote. In addition, she gets a big boost from the research triangle of conservative methodist/Quaker Duke University and University of North Carolina.

RESULT

Two victories for Clinton. It is not out of the realm of possibility even if the polls say NC is a definite 10 point Obama state.

The questions hang mostly over NC. Can Obama win the research triangle vote solely on the basis of the black vote, and if so does that play down the nature of his victory. The Duke population is the same population as suburban Philadelphia and a blend of pacifist and activist.

Who's really going to be disappointed in this one?

Reader Comments
  
Time to wake up
By Wild Horse May 5th 2008 at 9:44 pm EDT
Obama cannot win a general election. He has been damaged in such a way that middleclass, white voters will not vote for him. It is time for the party to wake up. Only Clinton can win the general election.
Re: Time to wake up
By Democrat in Westlake Village, CA May 5th 2008 at 9:46 pm EDT
yes! totally!
Re: Time to wake up
By Kryptonite May 5th 2008 at 9:55 pm EDT
Oh-except for the millions of us white-middle classers who will indeed vote for him. Get of your wild horse--its sloshing your brain against your skull causing you to think irrationally.
Re: Time to wake up
By jb1985 May 6th 2008 at 12:39 am EDT
Wild Horse you are absolutely right...
And I say that as a white female semi-retired with higher eduacation...
You know I really get fed up with this crap about Obama getting the educated vote....how is it that there are so many highly educated voting for Hillary then...BS,MS,PHD,MBA and others...
Polls don't tell it the way it really is....
Unless of course me and those I know make up such a minority HUH !!!!!!
Re: Time to wake up
By SciBlue May 6th 2008 at 6:28 am EDT
Doctoral candidate here voting for Senator Clinton.
  
Good to see your post
By Trey May 5th 2008 at 9:49 pm EDT
Let's see how to tackle - Obama will win NC by 8, I think Hillary will make inroads in the black vote - around 15 - 20%. In Indiana, I think He will do well in the northwest, in addition, I think he will do great in the cities and might eak out a win - at this point if he can keep it within 5 points that is good - sad - if you asked me a 3 weeks ago I would have said Obama in IN by 5 points - Rev. Wright, Hillary and Bill crossing every layer of the state and him being off stride killed him - he should have been able to close the tomorrow, in the end - his Rev killed him
  
sorry
By Kryptonite May 5th 2008 at 10:01 pm EDT
You will be disappointed my friend. She will not win both. I think Barry will win NC. Indie is a toss-up.
  
Those dern polls, whew...
By Deb Wiliams May 5th 2008 at 10:18 pm EDT
they go up and down don't they?

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread

RCP Average
04/28 - 05/04 -- 49.7 42.7 Obama +7.0
SurveyUSA
05/02 - 05/04 -- 50 45 Obama +5.0
Insider Advantage
05/04 - 05/04 781 LV 48 45 Obama +3.0
Zogby Tracking
05/03 - 05/04 624 LV 48 40 Obama +8.0
PPP (D)
05/03 - 05/04 870 LV 53 43 Obama +10.0
Rasmussen
05/01 - 05/01 831 LV 49 40 Obama +9.0
Research 2000
04/29 - 04/30 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7.0
Mason-Dixon
04/28 - 04/29 400 LV 49 42 Obama +7.0
***************
Race Poll Results Spread

North Carolina Democratic Primary Insider Advantage
Obama 48, Clinton 45 Obama +3.0

Indiana Democratic Primary InsiderAdvantage
Clinton 48, Obama 44 Clinton +4.0

West Virginia Democratic Primary Rasmussen

Clinton 56, Obama 27 Clinton +29.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary Zogby Tracking Obama 48, Clinton 40 Obama +8.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary PPP (D) Obama 53, Clinton 43 Obama +10.0

Indiana Democratic Primary Suffolk Clinton 49, Obama 43 Clinton +6.0

Indiana Democratic Primary PPP (D) Clinton 51, Obama 46 Clinton +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary Zogby Tracking Clinton 42, Obama 44 Obama +2.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Clinton 45 Obama +5.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary SurveyUSA Obama 50, Clinton 45 Obama +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary SurveyUSA Clinton 54, Obama 42 Clinton +12.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination USA Today/Gallup Obama 44, Clinton 51 Clinton +7.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination CBS News/NY Times Obama 50, Clinton 38 Obama +12.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Clinton 45 Obama +1.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton USA Today/Gallup

Clinton 46, McCain 49 McCain +3.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton CBS News/NY Times

Clinton 53, McCain 41 Clinton +12.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton Rasmussen Tracking Clinton 47, McCain 43 Clinton +4.0

General Election: McCain vs. Obama USA Today/Gallup Obama 47, McCain 48 McCain +1.0

General Election: McCain vs. Obama CBS News/NY Times Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11.0

General Election: McCain vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 43, McCain 47 McCain +4.0

Texas: McCain vs. Clinton Rasmussen McCain 49, Clinton 43, Und. 8 McCain +6.0

Texas: McCain vs. Obama Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 43, Und. 9 McCain +5.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton Gallup Tracking Clinton 46, McCain 46 Tie

General Election: McCain vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 43, McCain 47 McCain +4.0
  
OBAMA will get more delegates tomorrow
By MICHAEL on The Beach May 5th 2008 at 10:20 pm EDT
I see Obama getting more delegates tomorrow than Hillary!
Re: OBAMA will get more delegates tomorrow
By connie May 6th 2008 at 11:20 am EDT
He might get more delegates, the system is fixed and biased so he can, but does that mean he should be President or the democratic nominee, NO.
He is too closely tied to terrorists, reverse racism, radical muslim, and home grown terrorist.
THIS MAN SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR THE WHITEHOUSE!!
  
The outcome by
By Democrat in Minneapolis, MN May 6th 2008 at 1:05 am EDT
one point or ten does not matter, the people have begun to speak out, it will be a very big day in our nation tommorrow, a new direction shall start.
Disparaging comments will not be tolerated.
  
A double victory for Hillary Clinton
By Darlene (DEC) May 6th 2008 at 4:02 am EDT
is definately within the realm of possibility. I would not have thought so 2 weeks ago. The latest CBS polls has Hillary ahead by 6 in Indiana, a possible come from behind victory, and has Barack ahead by 3 in North Carolina. Too close to call there. Tuesday will be a nail biter. No doubt.
  
.
By annie b (mcliberal) May 6th 2008 at 6:57 am EDT
this is so amusing, since obama thought he had such a lock on both of these states. the wright factor, anyone?
  
I would
By Matt May 6th 2008 at 9:58 am EDT
I think another eli elitist would be a disasterous result for the country and for the world. It's fruitless to speculate at any rate, let's wait for the results to come in.
  
I have no idea who will
By Retired Army May 6th 2008 at 11:29 am EDT
WIN either of the 2 today. I hope Clinton can but these 2 states are up in the air.

But to the point of view of MOB when Clinton wins it is always a narrow win. When Obama wins it's a landslide. Polls don't count! Number are what matters! When Obama started catching up in PA it was a strong mandate for Obama but when Clinton closes the gap in IN and NC its an anomaly.

Well at the end of the day no matter who barely wins (and that is how I see it) we will still be without a REAL winner. The numbers aren't going to change much because we don't have a winer takes all system.

This is going to come down to a bunch of gutless Stupid Delegates (put in place by who?) who will vote only to preserve their options in the future. To hell with the voters! It has been planned all along and we fell into the trap.

We need a viable recall system to get these pandering delegates the hell out of the system. Also the voters in each state should be allowed to recall their representatives who do not support them. e.g. Kennedy and Kerry! There are probably some on the Clinton side as well.

Remember that democrat in California that was recalled and the terminator became gov? It seems that California is better off now than they were then but he works with both parties, will our winner?